Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships. 相似文献
Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions. 相似文献
In Australia, Coal Seam Gas (CSG) is a relatively new source of natural gas commonly advocated as a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alternative to coal. This study investigates how GHG emissions have been, and potentially could be, assessed within the Australian CSG industry. The research involved a document analysis of several Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) and consultant reports prepared as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process for major CSG projects in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (Qld). There were found to be inconsistencies in the conduct of greenhouse assessment by the CSG industry, including how complete and transparent assessments were, as well as how effectively they addressed project emission intensity and cumulative impacts. There were also found to be large inconsistencies between assessments carried out for Qld projects and those for NSW projects, likely because of differences in how assessment requirements are applied by planning bodies. This study also highlights how alternative assessment approaches, such as Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), have potential to enable a broader and more consistent understanding of emission sources that cross a range of geographical and project boundaries. 相似文献
A large amount of deep oil has been discovered in the Tazhong Uplift, Tarim Basin whereas the oil source is still controversial. An integrated geochemical approach was utilized to unravel the characteristics, origin and alteration of the deep oils. This study showed that the Lower Cambrian oil from well ZS1C (1x) was featured by small or trace amounts of biomarkers, unusually high concentration of dibenzothiophenes (DBTs), high δ34S of DBTs and high δ13C value of n-alkanes. These suggest a close genetic relationship with the Cambrian source rocks and TSR alteration. On the contrary, the Middle Cambrian oils from well ZS1 (2a) were characterized by low δ13C of n-alkanes and relatively high δ34S of individual sulfur compounds and a general “V” shape of steranes, indicating a good genetic affinity with the Middle–Upper Ordovician source rocks. The middle Cambrian salt rock separating the oils was suggested to be one of the factors responsible for the differentiation. It was suggested that most of the deep oils in the Tazhong Uplift were mixed source based on biomarkers and carbon isotope, which contain TSR altered oil in varied degree. The percentage of the oils contributed by the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician was in the range of 19–100% (average 57%) controlled by several geological and geochemical events. Significant variations in the δ34S values for individual compounds in the oils were observed suggesting a combination of different extent of TSR and thermal maturation alterations. The unusually high DBTs concentrations in the Tazhong-4 oilfield suggested as a result of mixing with the ZS1C oil (1x) and Lower Ordovician oils based on δ34S values of DBT. This study will enhance our understanding of both deep and shallow oil sources in the Tazhong Uplift and clarify the formation mechanisms of the unusually high DBTs oils in the region. 相似文献
This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice. 相似文献
